Natalie E Dean

Natalie E Dean,

Assistant Professor

Department: PHHP-COM BIOSTATISTICS
Business Phone: (352) 294-1945
Business Email: nataliedean@ufl.edu

Teaching Profile

Courses Taught
2020-2023
PHC7980 Research for Doctoral Dissertation
2019,2021
PHC6905 Independent Study
2018-2021
PHC7979 Advanced Research
2019-2020
PHC6059 Introduction to Applied Survival Analysis
2017-2018
PHC6937 Special Topics in Public Health
2017
STA6177 Applied Survival Analysis
2016
PHC4094 Introduction to Biostatistics for Health Science and Public Health

Research Profile

Open Researcher and Contributor ID (ORCID)

0000-0003-3884-0921

Publications

2022
Change in covid-19 risk over time following vaccination with CoronaVac: test negative case-control study.
BMJ (Clinical research ed.). 377 [DOI] 10.1136/bmj-2022-070102. [PMID] 35697361.
2022
Clinical outcomes related to glenosphere overhang in reverse shoulder arthroplasty using a lateralized humeral design
Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery. 31(10):2106-2115 [DOI] 10.1016/j.jse.2022.03.014.
2022
Effectiveness of an inactivated Covid-19 vaccine with homologous and heterologous boosters against Omicron in Brazil
Nature Communications. 13(1) [DOI] 10.1038/s41467-022-33169-0. [PMID] 36202800.
2022
Effectiveness of CoronaVac, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2, and Ad26.COV2.S among individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in Brazil: a test-negative, case-control study.
The Lancet. Infectious diseases. 22(6):791-801 [DOI] 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00140-2. [PMID] 35366959.
2022
Household secondary attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 by variant and vaccination status: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. [DOI] 10.1101/2022.01.09.22268984. [PMID] 35043125.
2022
Household Secondary Attack Rates of SARS-CoV-2 by Variant and Vaccination Status: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
JAMA network open. 5(4) [DOI] 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.9317. [PMID] 35482308.
2022
Protecting the herd with vaccination.
Science (New York, N.Y.). 375(6585):1088-1089 [DOI] 10.1126/science.abo2959. [PMID] 35271331.
2022
Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 119(26) [DOI] 10.1073/pnas.2112182119. [PMID] 35696558.
2022
The changing epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2
Science. 375(6585):1116-1121 [DOI] 10.1126/science.abm4915. [PMID] 35271324.
2022
The prevalence of pre-treatment and acquired HIV drug resistance in Vietnam: a nationally representative survey, 2017-2018.
Journal of the International AIDS Society. 25(2) [DOI] 10.1002/jia2.25857. [PMID] 35194954.
2022
The ring vaccination trial design for the estimation of vaccine efficacy and effectiveness during infectious disease outbreaks
Clinical Trials. 19(4):402-406 [DOI] 10.1177/17407745211073594. [PMID] 35057647.
2022
Tracking COVID-19 infections: time for change.
Nature. 602(7896) [DOI] 10.1038/d41586-022-00336-8. [PMID] 35136224.
2022
Use of Recently Vaccinated Individuals to Detect Bias in Test-Negative Case-Control Studies of COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness.
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.). 33(4):450-456 [DOI] 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001484. [PMID] 35384900.
2021
Challenges of evaluating and modelling vaccination in emerging infectious diseases.
Epidemics. 37 [DOI] 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100506. [PMID] 34628108.
2021
Change in COVID-19 risk over time following vaccination with CoronaVac: A testnegative case-control study.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. [DOI] 10.1101/2021.12.23.21268335. [PMID] 34988559.
2021
COVID vaccination studies: plan now to pool data, or be bogged down in confusion.
Nature. 591(7849) [DOI] 10.1038/d41586-021-00563-5. [PMID] 33658668.
2021
Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness and the Test-Negative Design.
The New England journal of medicine. 385(15):1431-1433 [DOI] 10.1056/NEJMe2113151. [PMID] 34496195.
2021
Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave
Nature. 600(7887):127-132 [DOI] 10.1038/s41586-021-04130-w. [PMID] 34695837.
2021
Discussion of “Regression Models for Understanding COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics With Incomplete Data”
Journal of the American Statistical Association. 116(536):1587-1590 [DOI] 10.1080/01621459.2021.1982722.
2021
Factors Associated With Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
JAMA network open. 4(8) [DOI] 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.22240. [PMID] 34448865.
2021
Hospital admissions due to COVID-19 in Scotland after one dose of vaccine.
Lancet (London, England). 397(10285):1601-1603 [DOI] 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00765-0. [PMID] 33901421.
2021
Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and risk factors for susceptibility and infectivity in Wuhan: a retrospective observational study.
The Lancet. Infectious diseases. 21(5):617-628 [DOI] 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30981-6. [PMID] 33476567.
2021
SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy.
Communications biology. 4(1) [DOI] 10.1038/s42003-021-02025-0. [PMID] 33883675.
2021
Statistical successes and failures during the COVID ‐19 pandemic: Comments on Ellenberg and Morris
Statistics in Medicine. 40(11):2515-2517 [DOI] 10.1002/sim.8934. [PMID] 33963583.
2021
The Usefulness of the Test-Positive Proportion of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 as a Surveillance Tool.
American journal of epidemiology. 190(7):1396-1405 [DOI] 10.1093/aje/kwab023. [PMID] 33576387.
2021
Theoretical Framework for Retrospective Studies of the Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines.
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.). 32(4):508-517 [DOI] 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001366. [PMID] 34001753.
2021
Using simulated infectious disease outbreaks to inform site selection and sample size for individually randomized vaccine trials during an ongoing epidemic.
Clinical trials (London, England). 18(5):630-638 [DOI] 10.1177/17407745211028898. [PMID] 34218667.
2020
Accumulating evidence from randomized clinical trials across outbreaks
New England Journal of Medicine.
2020
Aggregating data from COVID-19 trials.
Science (New York, N.Y.). 368(6496):1198-1199 [DOI] 10.1126/science.abc8993. [PMID] 32527823.
2020
COVID-19 Clinical Trials: A Teachable Moment for Improving Our Research Infrastructure and Relevance
Annals of Internal Medicine. 173(8):652-653 [DOI] 10.7326/m20-2959.
2020
Creating a Framework for Conducting Randomized Clinical Trials during Disease Outbreaks.
The New England journal of medicine. 382(14):1366-1369 [DOI] 10.1056/NEJMsb1905390. [PMID] 32242365.
2020
Ensemble forecast modeling for the design of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials.
Vaccine. 38(46):7213-7216 [DOI] 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.09.031. [PMID] 33012602.
2020
High levels of HIV drug resistance among adults failing second-line antiretroviral therapy in Namibia.
Medicine. 99(37) [DOI] 10.1097/MD.0000000000021661. [PMID] 32925712.
2020
Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study.
The Lancet. Infectious diseases. 20(10):1141-1150 [DOI] 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30471-0. [PMID] 32562601.
2020
Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. [DOI] 10.1101/2020.04.11.20056010. [PMID] 32511590.
2020
Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
JAMA network open. 3(12) [DOI] 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.31756. [PMID] 33315116.
2020
Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
Nature Human Behaviour. 4(9):964-971 [DOI] 10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9. [PMID] 32759985.
2020
Preventing a Secondary Epidemic of Lost Early Career Scientists. Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Women with Children
Annals of the American Thoracic Society. 17(11):1366-1370 [DOI] 10.1513/annalsats.202006-589ip.
2020
Temporal Confounding in the Test-Negative Design.
American journal of epidemiology. 189(11):1402-1407 [DOI] 10.1093/aje/kwaa084. [PMID] 32415834.
2020
The TIRS trial: protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial assessing the efficacy of preventive targeted indoor residual spraying to reduce Aedes-borne viral illnesses in Merida, Mexico.
Trials. 21(1) [DOI] 10.1186/s13063-020-04780-7. [PMID] 33032661.
2020
Two-stage adaptive enrichment design for testing an active factor.
Journal of biopharmaceutical statistics. 30(1):18-30 [DOI] 10.1080/10543406.2019.1609015. [PMID] 31135263.
2020
Understanding COVID-19 vaccine efficacy.
Science (New York, N.Y.). 370(6518):763-765 [DOI] 10.1126/science.abe5938. [PMID] 33087460.
2019
An online decision tree for vaccine efficacy trial design during infectious disease epidemics: The InterVax-Tool
Vaccine. 37(31):4376-4381 [DOI] 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.06.019. [PMID] 31242963.
2019
Design of vaccine efficacy trials during public health emergencies.
Science translational medicine. 11(499) [DOI] 10.1126/scitranslmed.aat0360. [PMID] 31270270.
2019
Provincial and national prevalence estimates of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance in South Africa measured using two WHO-recommended methods.
Antiviral therapy. 24(3):203-210 [DOI] 10.3851/IMP3294. [PMID] 30741163.
2019
RE: “MEASUREMENT OF VACCINE DIRECT EFFECTS UNDER THE TEST-NEGATIVE DESIGN”
American Journal of Epidemiology. 188(4):806-807 [DOI] 10.1093/aje/kwz019. [PMID] 30689690.
2018
Avian Influenza A Virus Infection among Workers at Live Poultry Markets, China, 2013-2016.
Emerging infectious diseases. 24(7):1246-1256 [DOI] 10.3201/eid2407.172059. [PMID] 29912708.
2018
DESIGN OF VACCINE TRIALS DURING OUTBREAKS WITH AND WITHOUT A DELAYED VACCINATION COMPARATOR.
The annals of applied statistics. 12(1):330-347 [DOI] 10.1214/17-AOAS1095. [PMID] 29606991.
2018
Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic.
BMC medicine. 16(1) [DOI] 10.1186/s12916-018-1185-5. [PMID] 30336778.
2017
Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine in preventing Ebola virus disease: final results from the Guinea ring vaccination, open-label, cluster-randomised trial (Ebola Ça Suffit!).
Lancet (London, England). 389(10068):505-518 [DOI] 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32621-6. [PMID] 28017403.
2017
Ring vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV under expanded access in response to an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Guinea, 2016: an operational and vaccine safety report.
The Lancet. Infectious diseases. 17(12):1276-1284 [DOI] 10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30541-8. [PMID] 29033032.
2017
Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 114(22):E4334-E4343 [DOI] 10.1073/pnas.1620161114. [PMID] 28442561.
2017
The public health value of vaccines beyond efficacy: methods, measures and outcomes.
BMC medicine. 15(1) [DOI] 10.1186/s12916-017-0911-8. [PMID] 28743299.
2016
Assessment of the World Health Organization’s HIV Drug Resistance Early Warning Indicators in Main and Decentralized Outreach Antiretroviral Therapy Sites in Namibia.
PloS one. 11(12) [DOI] 10.1371/journal.pone.0166649. [PMID] 27906995.
2016
Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 10(11) [DOI] 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005093. [PMID] 27806049.
2016
Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis.
BMC medicine. 14(1) [DOI] 10.1186/s12916-016-0678-3. [PMID] 27600737.
2016
The epidemiology and transmissibility of Zika virus in Girardot and San Andres island, Colombia, September 2015 to January 2016.
Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin. 21(28) [DOI] 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.28.30283. [PMID] 27452806.
2016
Transmissibility and Pathogenicity of Ebola Virus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Household Secondary Attack Rate and Asymptomatic Infection.
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. 62(10):1277-1286 [DOI] 10.1093/cid/ciw114. [PMID] 26932131.
2016
Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in Sierra Leone.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 113(16):4488-93 [DOI] 10.1073/pnas.1518587113. [PMID] 27035948.
2016
Urinary incontinence persisting after childbirth: extent, delivery history, and effects in a 12-year longitudinal cohort study.
BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology. 123(6):1022-9 [DOI] 10.1111/1471-0528.13395. [PMID] 25846816.
2015
Ebola vaccination – Authors’ reply.
Lancet (London, England). 386(10012) [DOI] 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00951-4. [PMID] 26738716.
2015
Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine expressing Ebola surface glycoprotein: interim results from the Guinea ring vaccination cluster-randomised trial.
Lancet (London, England). 386(9996):857-66 [DOI] 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61117-5. [PMID] 26248676.
2015
Evaluating Confidence Interval Methods for Binomial Proportions in Clustered Surveys
Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology. 3(4):484-503
2015
Factors associated with the transfer of pediatric patients with supracondylar humerus fractures to a level I pediatric trauma center
. 79(8):461-466
2015
Factors Associated with the Transfer of Pediatric Patients with Supracondylar Humerus Fractures to a Level I Pediatric Trauma Center.
Connecticut medicine. 79(8):461-6 [PMID] 26506677.
2015
The ring vaccination trial: a novel cluster randomised controlled trial design to evaluate vaccine efficacy and effectiveness during outbreaks, with special reference to Ebola
British Medical Journal. 351
2013
Faecal incontinence persisting after childbirth: a 12 year longitudinal study.
BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology. 120(2):169-179 [DOI] 10.1111/1471-0528.12039. [PMID] 23190303.
2013
Malnutrition in the first year of life and personality at age 40.
Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines. 54(8):911-9 [DOI] 10.1111/jcpp.12066. [PMID] 23488644.
2010
Early childhood malnutrition predicts depressive symptoms at ages 11-17.
Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines. 51(7):789-98 [DOI] 10.1111/j.1469-7610.2010.02208.x. [PMID] 20331492.
2001
Contribution of endogenously expressed Trp1 to a Ca2+-selective, store-operated Ca2+ entry pathway.
FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology. 15(10):1704-1710 [PMID] 11481220.
Considerations for the design of vaccine efficacy trials during public health emergencies
. [DOI] 10.1101/261875.
Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave in Europe and the United States
. [DOI] 10.1101/2021.03.24.21254199. [PMID] 33791745.
Design of Vaccine Trials during Outbreaks with and without a Delayed Vaccination Comparator
. [DOI] 10.1101/074088.
Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA
. [DOI] 10.1101/2020.07.06.20140285. [PMID] 32676609.
Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequities: a modeling study
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. [DOI] 10.1101/2022.11.18.22282514. [PMID] 36415459.
Guiding Vaccine Efficacy Trial Design During Public Health Emergencies: An interactive web-based decision support tool
. [DOI] 10.1101/252783.
Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of secondary attack rate
. [DOI] 10.1101/2020.07.29.20164590. [PMID] 32766596.
Modeling the impact of social distancing, testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic
. [DOI] 10.1101/2020.05.06.20092841. [PMID] 32511536.
Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas
. [DOI] 10.1101/2020.12.15.20248273.
Using simulated infectious disease outbreaks to guide the design of individually randomized vaccine trials
. [DOI] 10.1101/2021.01.29.21250703.

Grants

Sep 2020 – Aug 2022
Mathematical and Statistical Methods for the Control of Global Infectious Disease Threats
Role: Project Manager
Funding: NATL INST OF HLTH NIAID
Apr 2020 ACTIVE
RAPID: Dynamic Identification of SARS-COV-2 Transmission Epicenters in Presence of Spatial Heterogeneity (COV-DYNAMITE)
Role: Project Manager
Funding: NATL SCIENCE FOU
Apr 2020 ACTIVE
Quantifying the Epidemiological Impact of Targeted Indoor Residual Spraying on Aedes-borne Diseases
Role: Project Manager
Funding: EMORY UNIV via NATL INST OF HLTH NIAID
Aug 2018 – Jul 2021
Design and Analysis of Vaccine Trials for Emerging Infectious Disease Threats
Role: Principal Investigator
Funding: NATL INST OF HLTH NIAID
Jul 2017 – Sep 2017
To provide technical support to the WHO Blueprint and develop a guidance document for vaccine clinical evaluation in Public Health Emergencies
Role: Principal Investigator
Funding: WORLD HLTH ORGANIZATION
Aug 2016 – Jan 2017
Dengue Vaccine Seroprevalence Surveys
Role: Principal Investigator
Funding: WORLD HLTH ORGANIZATION

Contact Details

Phones:
Business:
(352) 294-1945
Emails:
Addresses:
Business Mailing:
P.O. BOX 117450
GAINESVILLE FL 326110001
Business Street:
464 DAUER HALL
GAINESVILLE FL 326110001