Natalie E Dean

Natalie E Dean

Assistant Professor

Department: PHHP-COM BIOSTATISTICS
Business Phone: (352) 294-1945
Business Email: nataliedean@ufl.edu

About Natalie E Dean

Natalie Dean is a tenure-track Assistant Professor in the Department of Biostatistics. She is affiliate faculty in the Emerging Pathogens Institute. She is a member of the Center for Inference and Dynamics of Infectious Diseases.

Accomplishments

Provost's Excellence Award for Assistant Professors
2020 · University of Florida

Research Profile

Our group’s research centers on the statistical analysis of emerging infectious diseases, with a particular focus on evaluating the efficacy and effectiveness of investigational vaccines. We study innovative strategies for conducting phase 3 vaccine trials adapted to the outbreak setting. We also examine the statistical properties of observational study designs like the test negative designs. We apply these methods to diverse diseases, like Ebola, Zika, dengue, chikungunya, influenza, and COVID-19. Our group is highly collaborative and motivated by high-impact problems in global health.

Open Researcher and Contributor ID (ORCID)

0000-0003-3884-0921

Areas of Interest
  • Clinical Trials Design & Analysis
  • Biostatistics
  • Emerging infectious disease
  • Global Health
  • Infectious disease surveillance
  • Public Health
  • vaccines

Publications

2021
Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and risk factors for susceptibility and infectivity in Wuhan: a retrospective observational study.
The Lancet. Infectious diseases. [DOI] 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30981-6. [PMID] 33476567.
2021
The Usefulness Of SARS-CoV-2 Test-Positive Proportion As A Surveillance Tool.
American journal of epidemiology. [DOI] 10.1093/aje/kwab023. [PMID] 33576387.
2020
Aggregating data from COVID-19 trials.
Science (New York, N.Y.). 368(6496):1198-1199 [DOI] 10.1126/science.abc8993. [PMID] 32527823.
2020
Understanding COVID-19 vaccine efficacy.
Science (New York, N.Y.). 370(6518):763-765 [DOI] 10.1126/science.abe5938. [PMID] 33087460.
2020
Two-stage adaptive enrichment design for testing an active factor.
Journal of biopharmaceutical statistics. 30(1):18-30 [DOI] 10.1080/10543406.2019.1609015. [PMID] 31135263.
2020
The TIRS trial: protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial assessing the efficacy of preventive targeted indoor residual spraying to reduce Aedes-borne viral illnesses in Merida, Mexico.
Trials. 21(1) [DOI] 10.1186/s13063-020-04780-7. [PMID] 33032661.
2020
Temporal Confounding in the Test-Negative Design.
American journal of epidemiology. 189(11):1402-1407 [DOI] 10.1093/aje/kwaa084. [PMID] 32415834.
2020
Preventing a Secondary Epidemic of Lost Early Career Scientists. Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Women with Children.
Annals of the American Thoracic Society. 17(11):1366-1370 [DOI] 10.1513/AnnalsATS.202006-589IP. [PMID] 32667850.
2020
Preventing a Secondary Epidemic of Lost Early Career Scientists. Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Women with Children
Annals of the American Thoracic Society. 17(11):1366-1370 [DOI] 10.1513/annalsats.202006-589ip.
2020
Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19.
Nature Human Behaviour. 4(9):964-971 [DOI] 10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9. [PMID] 32759985.
2020
Accumulating evidence from randomized clinical trials across outbreaks
New England Journal of Medicine.
2020
Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of secondary attack rate.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. [DOI] 10.1101/2020.07.29.20164590. [PMID] 32766596.
2020
Modeling the impact of social distancing, testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. [DOI] 10.1101/2020.05.06.20092841. [PMID] 32511536.
2020
Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. [DOI] 10.1101/2020.04.11.20056010. [PMID] 32511590.
2020
Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study.
The Lancet. Infectious diseases. 20(10):1141-1150 [DOI] 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30471-0. [PMID] 32562601.
2020
High levels of HIV drug resistance among adults failing second-line antiretroviral therapy in Namibia.
Medicine. 99(37) [DOI] 10.1097/MD.0000000000021661. [PMID] 32925712.
2020
Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. [DOI] 10.1101/2020.07.06.20140285. [PMID] 32676609.
2020
Ensemble forecast modeling for the design of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials.
Vaccine. 38(46):7213-7216 [DOI] 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.09.031. [PMID] 33012602.
2020
Creating a Framework for Conducting Randomized Clinical Trials during Disease Outbreaks.
The New England journal of medicine. 382(14):1366-1369 [DOI] 10.1056/NEJMsb1905390. [PMID] 32242365.
2020
COVID-19 Clinical Trials: A Teachable Moment for Improving Our Research Infrastructure and Relevance.
Annals of internal medicine. 173(8):652-653 [DOI] 10.7326/M20-2959. [PMID] 32543881.
2020
COVID-19 Clinical Trials: A Teachable Moment for Improving Our Research Infrastructure and Relevance
Annals of Internal Medicine. 173(8):652-653 [DOI] 10.7326/m20-2959.
2020
Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
JAMA network open. 3(12) [DOI] 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.31756. [PMID] 33315116.
2019
An online decision tree for vaccine efficacy trial design during infectious disease epidemics: The InterVax-Tool.
Vaccine. 37(31):4376-4381 [DOI] 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.06.019. [PMID] 31242963.
2019
Design of vaccine efficacy trials during public health emergencies
Science Translational Medicine. [DOI] 10.1126/scitranslmed.aat0360. [PMID] 31270270.
2019
Design of vaccine efficacy trials during public health emergencies.
Science translational medicine. 11(499) [DOI] 10.1126/scitranslmed.aat0360. [PMID] 31270270.
2019
Provincial and national prevalence estimates of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance in South Africa measured using two WHO-recommended methods.
Antiviral therapy. 24(3):203-210 [DOI] 10.3851/IMP3294. [PMID] 30741163.
2019
RE: “MEASUREMENT OF VACCINE DIRECT EFFECTS UNDER THE TEST-NEGATIVE DESIGN”.
American journal of epidemiology. 188(4):806-810 [DOI] 10.1093/aje/kwz019. [PMID] 30689690.
2018
DESIGN OF VACCINE TRIALS DURING OUTBREAKS WITH AND WITHOUT A DELAYED VACCINATION COMPARATOR.
The annals of applied statistics. 12(1):330-347 [DOI] 10.1214/17-AOAS1095. [PMID] 29606991.
2018
Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic.
BMC medicine. 16(1) [DOI] 10.1186/s12916-018-1185-5. [PMID] 30336778.
2018
Avian Influenza A Virus Infection among Workers at Live Poultry Markets, China, 2013-2016.
Emerging infectious diseases. 24(7):1246-1256 [DOI] 10.3201/eid2407.172059. [PMID] 29912708.
2017
Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine in preventing Ebola virus disease: final results from the Guinea ring vaccination, open-label, cluster-randomised trial (Ebola Ça Suffit!).
Lancet (London, England). 389(10068):505-518 [DOI] 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32621-6. [PMID] 28017403.
2017
Ring Vaccination With Rvsv-Zebov Under Expanded Access in Response to An Outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea, 2016: An Operational and Vaccine Safety Report
Lancet Infectious Diseases. 17(12):1276-1284 [DOI] 10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30541-8.
2017
Ring vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV under expanded access in response to an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Guinea, 2016: an operational and vaccine safety report.
The Lancet. Infectious diseases. 17(12):1276-1284 [DOI] 10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30541-8. [PMID] 29033032.
2017
Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 114(22):E4334-E4343 [DOI] 10.1073/pnas.1620161114. [PMID] 28442561.
2017
The public health value of vaccines beyond efficacy: methods, measures and outcomes.
BMC medicine. 15(1) [DOI] 10.1186/s12916-017-0911-8. [PMID] 28743299.
2016
Transmissibility and Pathogenicity of Ebola Virus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Household Secondary Attack Rate and Asymptomatic Infection.
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. 62(10):1277-1286 [DOI] 10.1093/cid/ciw114. [PMID] 26932131.
2016
The epidemiology and transmissibility of Zika virus in Girardot and San Andres island, Colombia, September 2015 to January 2016.
Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin. 21(28) [DOI] 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.28.30283. [PMID] 27452806.
2016
Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in Sierra Leone.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 113(16):4488-93 [DOI] 10.1073/pnas.1518587113. [PMID] 27035948.
2016
Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 10(11) [DOI] 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005093. [PMID] 27806049.
2016
Assessment of the World Health Organization’s HIV Drug Resistance Early Warning Indicators in Main and Decentralized Outreach Antiretroviral Therapy Sites in Namibia.
PloS one. 11(12) [DOI] 10.1371/journal.pone.0166649. [PMID] 27906995.
2016
Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis.
BMC medicine. 14(1) [DOI] 10.1186/s12916-016-0678-3. [PMID] 27600737.
2015
Ebola vaccination – Authors’ reply.
Lancet (London, England). 386(10012) [DOI] 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00951-4. [PMID] 26738716.
2015
Efficacy and effectiveness of an rVSV-vectored vaccine expressing Ebola surface glycoprotein: interim results from the Guinea ring vaccination cluster-randomised trial.
Lancet (London, England). 386(9996):857-66 [DOI] 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61117-5. [PMID] 26248676.
2015
Evaluating Confidence Interval Methods for Binomial Proportions in Clustered Surveys
Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology. 3(4):484-503
2015
Factors Associated with the Transfer of Pediatric Patients with Supracondylar Humerus Fractures to a Level I Pediatric Trauma Center.
Connecticut medicine. 79(8):461-6 [PMID] 26506677.
View on: PubMed
2015
The ring vaccination trial: a novel cluster randomised controlled trial design to evaluate vaccine efficacy and effectiveness during outbreaks, with special reference to Ebola
British Medical Journal. 351
2013
Malnutrition in the first year of life and personality at age 40
The Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. 54(8):911-919 [DOI] 10.1111/jcpp.12066. [PMID] 23488644.
2010
Early childhood malnutrition predicts depressive symptoms at ages 11-17
The Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. 51(7):789-798 [DOI] 10.1111/j.1469-7610.2010.02208.x. [PMID] 20331492.
Considerations for the design of vaccine efficacy trials during public health emergencies
. [DOI] 10.1101/261875.
Design of Vaccine Trials during Outbreaks with and without a Delayed Vaccination Comparator
. [DOI] 10.1101/074088.
Guiding Vaccine Efficacy Trial Design During Public Health Emergencies: An interactive web-based decision support tool
. [DOI] 10.1101/252783.
Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas
. [DOI] 10.1101/2020.12.15.20248273.
Using simulated infectious disease outbreaks to guide the design of individually randomized vaccine trials
. [DOI] 10.1101/2021.01.29.21250703.

Grants

Sep 2020 ACTIVE
Mathematical and Statistical Methods for the Control of Global Infectious Disease Threats
Role: Co-Investigator
Funding: NATL INST OF HLTH NIAID
Apr 2020 ACTIVE
RAPID: Dynamic Identification of SARS-COV-2 Transmission Epicenters in Presence of Spatial Heterogeneity (COV-DYNAMITE)
Role: Co-Investigator
Funding: NATL SCIENCE FOU
Apr 2020 ACTIVE
Quantifying the Epidemiological Impact of Targeted Indoor Residual Spraying on Aedes-borne Diseases
Role: Co-Investigator
Funding: EMORY UNIV via NATL INST OF HLTH NIAID
Aug 2018 ACTIVE
Design and Analysis of Vaccine Trials for Emerging Infectious Disease Threats
Role: Principal Investigator
Funding: NATL INST OF HLTH NIAID
Jul 2017 – Sep 2017
To provide technical support to the WHO Blueprint and develop a guidance document for vaccine clinical evaluation in Public Health Emergencies
Role: Principal Investigator
Funding: WORLD HLTH ORGANIZATION
Aug 2016 – Jan 2017
Dengue Vaccine Seroprevalence Surveys
Role: Principal Investigator
Funding: WORLD HLTH ORGANIZATION

Education

PhD Biostatistics
2014 · Harvard University
AM Biostatistics
2011 · Harvard University
BA Biology, Mathematics/Statistics
2009 · Boston University

Teaching Profile

Teaching Philosophy
I am committed to creating a positive and engaging learning environment for my students. I seek to use innovative strategies to promote active learning, including team-based learning and flipped classrooms. I emphasize recent and illustrative examples from the literature because I feel that this is the best way for students to understand the motivation behind biostatistics. I aim to train my students to be confident and critical consumers of biomedical research.
Courses Taught
2019-2021
PHC6059 Introduction to Applied Survival Analysis
2018-2021
PHC7979 Advanced Research
2020-2021
PHC7980 Research for Doctoral Dissertation
2019
PHC6905 Independent Study
2017-2018
PHC6937 Special Topics in Public Health
2017
STA6177 Applied Survival Analysis
2016
PHC4094 Introduction to Biostatistics for Health Science and Public Health

Contact Details

Phones:
Business:
(352) 294-1945
Emails: